The lunchtime kick off in the Premier League has become somewhat of a curse in recent times.
Experienced punters might say, “never bet on a lunchtime game”, because it’s guaranteed to ruin your accumulator before it’s even started.
But is that true? In this article, I’ll check how the odds compare to the result of every Premier League lunchtime match from the beginning of the 2021/22 season to the present time.
Real Match Data
The following table shows the odds and outcome of every lunchtime game in the Premier League since 14/08/2021.
|Date||Time||Home Team||Away Team||Winning Odds & Winner|
|14/08/2021||12:30||Man United||Leeds||31/50 – Man United|
|21/08/2021||12:30||Liverpool||Burnley||1/4 – Liverpool|
|28/08/2021||12:30||Man City||Arsenal||17/50 – Man City|
|11/09/2021||12:30||Crystal Palace||Tottenham||76/25 – Crystal Palace|
|18/09/2021||12:30||Wolves||Brentford||417/100 – Brentford|
|25/09/2021||12:30||Man United||Aston Villa||7/1 – Aston Villa|
|02/10/2021||12:30||Man United||Everton||163/50 – Draw|
|16/10/2021||12:30||Watford||Liverpool||17/50 – Liverpool|
|23/10/2021||12:30||Chelsea||Norwich||1/5 – Chelsea|
|30/10/2021||12:30||Leicester||Arsenal||89/50 – Arsenal|
|06/11/2021||12:30||Man United||Man City||18/25 – Man City|
|20/11/2021||12:30||Leicester||Chelsea||19/25 – Chelsea|
|27/11/2021||12:30||Arsenal||Newcastle||51/100 – Arsenal|
|04/12/2021||12:30||West Ham||Chelsea||387/100 – West Ham|
|11/12/2021||12:30||Man City||Wolves||17/100 – Man City|
|01/01/2022||12:30||Arsenal||Man City||16/25 – Man City|
|15/01/2022||12:30||Man City||Chelsea||16/25 – Man City|
|22/01/2022||12:30||Everton||Aston Villa||8/5 – Aston Villa|
|12/02/2022||12:30||Man United||Southampton||7/2 – Draw|
|19/02/2022||12:30||West Ham||Newcastle||77/25 – Draw|
|26/02/2022||12:30||Leeds||Tottenham||97/100 – Tottenham|
|05/03/2022||12:30||Leicester||Leeds||51/50 – Leicester|
|12/03/2022||12:30||Brighton||Liverpool||12/25 – Liverpool|
|19/03/2022||12:30||Aston Villa||Arsenal||29/20 – Arsenal|
|02/04/2022||12:30||Liverpool||Watford||4/25 – Liverpool|
|09/04/2022||12:30||Everton||Man United||77/25 – Everton|
|16/04/2022||12:30||Tottenham||Brighton||111/20 – Brighton|
|23/04/2022||12:30||Arsenal||Man United||21/20 – Arsenal|
|30/04/2022||12:30||Newcastle||Liverpool||27/50 – Liverpool|
|15/05/2022||12:30||Tottenham||Burnley||8/25 – Tottenham|
|06/08/2022||12:30||Fulham||Liverpool||259/50 – Draw|
|13/08/2022||12:30||Aston Villa||Everton||39/50 – Aston Villa|
|20/08/2022||12:30||Tottenham||Wolves||9/20 – Tottenham|
|27/08/2022||12:30||Southampton||Man United||19/20 – Man Utd|
|03/09/2022||12:30||Everton||Liverpool||417/100 – Draw|
|17/09/2022||12:30||Wolves||Man City||17/50 – Man City|
|15/10/2022||12:30||Leicester||Crystal Palace||62/25 – Draw|
|22/10/2022||12:30||Nott’m Forest||Liverpool||393/50 – Nott’m Forest|
|29/10/2022||12:30||Leicester||Man City||41/100 – Man City|
|06/11/2022||12:30||Chelsea||Arsenal||41/25 – Arsenal|
|12/11/2022||12:30||Man City||Brentford||448/25 – Brentford|
|26/12/2022||12:30||Brentford||Tottenham||67/25 – Draw|
|31/12/2022||12:30||Wolves||Man United||93/100 – Man Utd|
|14/01/2023||12:30||Man United||Man City||299/100 – Man Utd|
|21/01/2023||12:30||Liverpool||Chelsea||13/5 – Draw|
What team has played in the most lunchtime kick off games?
As you can expect, the usual “top 6” teams occupied most of the lunchtime kick off games (36 out of the 45 games), which included at least one of Manchester City, Liverpool, Manchester United, Tottenham, Chelsea, and Arsenal.
Some people may put this down to the lack of European Football played during the week, but Manchester United kicked off at lunchtime more than any other team (10 games) since August 2021.
Does the “favourite” always win?
In short, no. Since August 2021, there have been plenty of examples of the so-called underdog beating the favourite.
Brentford beat Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium in November 2022. West Ham beat Chelsea in December 2021. Nottingham Forest beat Liverpool in October 2022. Brighton beat Tottenham in April 2022. And Aston Villa beat Manchester United at Old Trafford.
As with any Football match played anywhere in the world at any time of the day, there is always an opportunity for the favourite to slip up against a team that is perceived to be not as good.
What’s the best result to bet on?
No one wants a boring draw to kick off a weekend of Premier League football. As the data shows, it rarely happens – only 8 out of the 45 games have been draws.
In contrast, the away team were typically the most successful teams – achieving 20 away wins, which left only 17 home wins. Maybe the best option for your lunchtime bet could be on the away team.
Who has the best early kick off record?
Manchester City won 77.7% (7 out of 9) of the matches they played at midday on a Saturday since the beginning of last season. Man City are prolific on any given day, let alone at a time that is perceived to be notoriously “cursed” for the big teams.
They won every midday match they played in their title-winning season in 2021/22 but slipped up against Brentford (at home) and Manchester United (away) this season. Arsenal are another team that performs well. They have won five of the seven games they played on a Saturday at lunchtime.
Who could win your bet?
As with any bet you place, there’s a risk factor that you need to consider. But you might be surprised at who performs the best on the early kickoff.
Aston Villa has won three out of the four games they played on a Saturday lunchtime – one of those wins was even against Manchester United at Old Trafford.
Both Brighton and Nottingham Forest have won 100% of their Saturday lunchtime kickoff games. Although they have only played at 12:30 PM once in the Premier League since the beginning of last season, their wins were against Tottenham and Liverpool, respectively.
Unless Manchester City are playing away to Manchester United or at home to Brentford, you can trust that Pep’s superteam will deliver a winning bet to set off your weekend.
Betting on a “smaller” team to cause an upset against one of the big six could be a risky game to play, though.
The odds have always favoured one of the top six teams whenever they’ve played someone outside the top six, but there have been plenty of examples of people winning big on their underdog bets.
Lunchtime Curse RoundUp
The dreaded “lunchtime kickoff curse” isn’t as evil as you think – at least in recent times.
The stats show there’s just as much chance of an upset happening as any other day or time. It’s never nice for your entire weekend’s accumulator to be over before 3 PM on a Saturday, but that’s the risk you take when betting. Your bet will either win or it won’t. There’s no in-between.
Lunchtime kick offs used to be far more cursed. It is only relatively recently that the Premier League has become a 4-day event – with games from Friday night until Monday night.
With the progression and better understanding of Sports Medicine, the elite teams are much better at adapting to an earlier kickoff time than they used to be, which means that it’s much less of a risk to bet on the favourite to win while you have your lunch.
On the Betting Punter website, you can learn the best tips for giving yourself the best chance when betting responsibly on your favourite sports.